Subscribe by RSSThis compressed 5 days between Iowa and New Hampshire seems insane. However, the polls have been telling an interesting tale, especially concerning Clinton and Obama.
I’ll start with the Democrats.
At this point, the RealClearPolitics poll averages have Obama leading Clinton by 4 points. Here’s how it breaks down:
RCP New Hampshire Poll Averages:
34.3 - Obama
30.9 - Clinton
18.9 - Edwards
5.4 - Richardson
For the period of 1/2 to 1/5.
That’s excellent news for Obama and awful news for Clinton. As of this time, it appears that something I predicted a while ago is starting to happen, at least in these early states. Unfortunately I can’t seem to find the post to prove that I can at least be right 50% of the time, but it appears the trend is moving away from Clinton.
What I surmised was that there were a lot of voters who liked Obama, but were on the fence about him. They were going with Clinton because she was a comfortable choice. However, once Obama won Iowa, the floodgates opened and I think a lot of waffling Clinton supporters may have decided that they should give Obama a chance.
However, the trend begins to change for Obama once you hit Michigan and Nevada, which are both squarely Clinton territory at this point.
Next, the Republicans.
Right now at least, McCain is leading Romney by a few points. Here’s the rundown:
RCP New Hampshire Poll Averages:
32.7 - McCain
28.1 - Romney
11.4 - Huckabee
9.1 - Giuliani
8.0 - Paul
2.4 - Thompson
Can Romney withstand yet another loss? The question really is, do these early contests even matter for Republicans if different candidates win Iowa, New Hampshire, and maybe South Carolina? McCain is the story of the year on this side as many predicted he would have been out of the race in September of 2007. He treaded on and now is in the position to take New Hampshire, a state which is prepared to now reward him a second time as they did in 2000.
Of course, both the Republican and Democratic races are quite fluid and these could change by tomorrow heading into Tuesday. However, there isn’t that much time for candidates sway more voters.
It will be down to the wire like Iowa but right now it’s looking like Obama and McCain are in really good positions.
(No Ratings Yet)
Loading ...Visit the You Decide 2008 Store »
Loading ...
I was appalled to hear what Senator Edwards said last night at the New Hampshire debates,he said he was fighting for the middle class, did he forget about the poor and the disabled they have voting rights, through all the debate I never heard anyone say that they where fighting for the poor and the disable. Hello Senator Edwards we are the ones that wait on you in Mc Donalds. Maybe you haven’t heard minimum wage barely keeps above water. Especially when there are some busines’s that only want people part time and part-time is cosidered anything under 38 hours. So that leaves alot of people in minimum wage jobs without health insurance. So what about the poor, we do count for something and that is one vote a piece.
OBAMA 2008
Obama is all fluff and the so-called independents or undecided are what they are because they lack the intellectual capacity to make a good judgement - would it be hard to chose between one who has 35 years of proven experience and one who is obviously all fluff!
wake up america! - your dollar will continue to weaken if you go for obama!
consider that in taj mahal, they already refuse to accept american dollars as a payment from tourists…oh well.
This article states:
“However, the trend begins to change for Obama once you hit Michigan and Nevada, which are both squarely Clinton territory at this point.”
When it comes to Michigan, that’s an extremely unfair statement to make because the Democrats fixed things so only Hilary can win there. To explain, Michigan decided to up its primary date to Jan. 15th. The national Democrat Party was infuriated by this and may strip Michigan of its caucus votes. However, the major problem was a petition was circulated to the presidential contenders to have them not register as candidates in Michigan. Just about every major candidate joined the petition except for, you guessed it! Hillary Clinton. So she’s 99% likely to win there. The only reason this will happen is because the national Democrat Party is the pet of the Clintons and will do anything short of murder (we hope) to make sure Hilary gets the nomination.
Anybody still think Hillary’s a candidate for change?
Very impressed with Edwards. I was for Obama but now switching.
Edwards is always desicive, clear and esp like his his views on college education i.e the grants for kid if they work minimum hrs a week and trade policies. Voting for Edwards tuesday
thanks
I was trying to choose between Obama and John Edwards. I have decided to go for Edwards, I was for him and Kerry last time around and feel he really cares about american families. One main thing that made me decide on him is that he isn’t taking money from Huge corporations!! THATS HUGE! Think about it! Those people robb us everyday!!! and all the other candidates take money from them and then say that they will fight these companioes once they are in office……doubtful. I do like Obama also but JOHN EDWARDS IS MY MAN!
Clinton is intelligent but too politically motivated.
Obama is inexperienced and not savy enough to handle foreign diplomacy.
Richards is a nice guy, but not too bright.
Edwards is passionate and sincere about his “fight for the middle class” and has the strong advantage of not being a hypocrite because he does not take campaign money from lobbyists and PACs. Edwards’ campaign is being grossly outspent by both Hilary and Obama and he is fighting a good fight. My vote definitely goes to Edwards.